After closely following the avalanche in Nepal/Tibet that just occurred, I feel the worse is yet to come. By now, you’ve seen the videos of several areas being demolished and obliterated.

For the sake of trauma, I will NOT repost all these images or videos.

I am NOT on standby to go or deploy out to this area. And for those wondering, all of my current work is relegated to domestic assignments (within the US).

But let’s start thinking about the hazards and ramifications.

The ice shelf/avalanche seemly started this causing a debris flow to go down the side of the mountain. Many of these small towns line the river.

Well above the small towns, there appear to be a few tributaries and lakes that hold back the flow. But with all the debris coming down, the river and outlets gets blocked from the debris causing more challenges with flow control.

But when it finally gives from the pressure and the clogging of debris, the dams breach causing huge flash flooding to occur.

These cascading effects are common in disasters and rarely is it only one type of disaster responsible for immeasurable damages/loss of life.

Ostensibly, I’d like to think the local officials were aware of these issues prior and readied emergency messaging for all mobile devices in the area. This way, in case of catastrophic issue, they could be ready to send the evac notice to everyone.

As you know, most of that part of the world operates solely off mobile devices (not laptops, desktop computers) so I hope local officials were able to send out information early to those in affected areas.

IMHO, I think we will see thousands of causalities including many who will never be found.

It’s waaaay to early to tell how many teams will be needed to rescue or extricate/recover bodies but I hope many agencies are providing aide to those primary agencies.

Now might be a good time for your agencies to engage with your local emergency management agency to see how they can better position themselves and enhance their preparedness efforts with all other public safety partners.

@rusnivek